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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It frequently serves as a type of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who engineered the biggest resurgence wins the prize. However, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or simply the most shocking surprise.

Yet the latest race is profoundly unique. The list of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions fading and recent strugglers rising together. Under an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to conjure magic from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But the current is not a typical year!

The area where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a given after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, he bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

Still