🔗 Share this article

Just eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery scolded him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained whether his performances were a sign or a cause for the side's more general malaise.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. As the in-form star curled home his second to restore his side's advantage, the boss discarded his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team marched on to a 10th successive win , despite not winning their opening six games, are somehow a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.

Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?

This is a particularly tough query to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, indicates otherwise. Moreover, their performances haven't been completely commanding this season, even as the wins have piled up.

As per Opta, on just two occasions have Villa had an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a side that have put together ten consecutive victories, the Villans look curiously susceptible – however at the moment the margins are swinging for them.

The Winning Formula

The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition before hoping their talisman to bail them out with two precise efforts. This occurred at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and once more versus Manchester United.

Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, bent right inside the post from a wide position. For his second acted as a somewhat messier replica of his first as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Can It Last?

Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.

Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival Villa will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, cannot maintain drilling the ball past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures might still rediscover their best form.

• The main striker might resume scoring again.
• Jadon Sancho might become the force he was at Borussia Dortmund.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to regain fitness, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility for a sustained push, but they surely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.

Relishing the Unlikely

Yet, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought the midfielder as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge while looking like a crucial player for the national team.

The current run must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As Rogers faced the home supporters at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.